By Paul Temperton
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Extra resources for A Guide to UK Monetary Policy
Although M2 is perhaps the most satisfactory measure of transactions balances, a more central role for it is largely ruled out for the present time by the short run of data available. Data are only available from November 1981 onwards: this precludes seasonal adjustment and assessment of the relationship between M2 and other economic variables. Furthermore, some three quarters of M2 is interest bearing and it has recently behaved more like a measure of broad money. In 1984/85, interpretation of its behaviour was rendered difficult by the changes in the terms of some building society accounts.
On the fundamental question of the ability of monetary aggregates to predict future inflation, it was now considered that narrow monetary aggregates were better predictors than broad aggregates - a finding at variance with the conventional wisdom of the 1970s. e. it bore a reasonably close relationship to developments in nominal GOP- and that it could be controlled by variations in short term interest rates. The three essential attributes of a monetary aggregate which is suitable for targetry- that it predicts future inflation, has a stable velocity and can be controlled by the authorities - seemed to be possessed by MO.
Non-bank holdings of these debt instruments may be as liquid as the non-banks' claims on the UK monetary sector; for example a Treasury bills is as liquid, if not more so, than a certificate of deposit issued by a bank. Thus, £M3 does not encompass all intermediation or substitute intermediation facilities provided to UK residents, nor does it include all types of asset which have monetary or near-monetary characteristics. The liquidity aggregates (PSL 1 and PSL2) go some way to correcting these problems.
A Guide to UK Monetary Policy by Paul Temperton